Middle East Airspace Closures Trigger Sharp Drop in Flights

Widespread airspace closures across the Middle East have led to a dramatic reduction in aviation activity, with flights to, from and within the region falling by 59% since 28 February 2026, according to new analysis from aviation consultancy IBA.

The figures, based on data up to 22 March 2026 from the firm’s Insight platform, highlight the significant operational impact on airlines across the region, particularly major Gulf carriers.

Among those hardest hit is Emirates, which has reduced its flight schedule by 53%, equivalent to around 3% of its annual operations. Meanwhile, Qatar Airways has cut almost its entire schedule during the period, representing approximately 6% of its yearly flights.

In addition to widespread cancellations, airlines continuing to operate through the region have been forced to adopt longer routings to avoid restricted airspace. This has resulted in extended flight times and increased operating costs. Some carriers have also begun placing aircraft into storage, with Qatar Airways reportedly parking around 43% of its fleet as of 24 March.

Despite the scale of disruption, IBA does not anticipate a fundamental shift in long-term fleet strategies among Middle Eastern airlines. Carriers in the region remain well-positioned for future growth, supported by substantial order backlogs that often exceed the size of their existing fleets. More than 360 aircraft orders were placed in 2025 alone.

Mike Yeomans, Head of Advisory Services at IBA, said aircraft procurement decisions are driven by long-term planning rather than short-term disruption. However, he noted that prolonged instability could lead to delays in near-term deliveries.

Alongside operational challenges, airlines are also facing mounting financial pressure from rising fuel costs. IBA data shows jet fuel prices are currently around 118.8% of last year’s average. With fuel accounting for roughly 21% of total airline expenditure, this increase could reduce industry EBIT margins by around 3.5 percentage points, potentially pushing weaker carriers into loss-making territory.

While some airlines may offset the impact through fuel hedging, not all operators have such protections in place. Carriers are expected to pass a portion of the increased costs on to passengers, with ticket prices potentially rising by up to 9%. However, demand sensitivity—particularly in leisure travel—may limit how much of the increase can be absorbed by consumers.

IBA suggests the combined pressures of disruption and rising costs are likely to widen the gap between financially stronger airlines and more vulnerable operators. This could accelerate consolidation within the sector, while prompting airlines to tighten capacity, focus on higher-yield routes and invest more rapidly in fuel-efficient aircraft.