The aviation analytics firm Cirium has reviewed scheduled flights and cancellation data between the UK and the Middle East, revealing widespread disruption as airspace closures continue across parts of the region.
Despite the ongoing situation, 74 flights are scheduled to depart from the UK to Middle Eastern destinations today (2 March), representing 24,705 seats. However, cancellation rates vary significantly by country, with some routes effectively suspended.
UK–Middle East Scheduled Capacity This Week
According to Cirium’s latest data, scheduled departures from the UK to the Middle East over the coming days are as follows:
- 2 March: 74 flights – 24,705 seats
- 3 March: 73 flights – 24,678 seats
- 4 March: 78 flights – 26,008 seats
- 5 March: 79 flights – 25,960 seats
- 6 March: 75 flights – 24,977 seats
- 7 March: 77 flights – 25,905 seats
- 8 March: 83 flights – 27,584 seats
While schedules remain loaded into airline systems, actual operations are being heavily affected by airspace restrictions and airline-specific decisions.
UK Departures: Country-by-Country Cancellations (as of 17:00 UK, 2 March)
Cirium’s data shows stark differences in cancellation rates depending on destination:
- Bahrain: 3 flights scheduled – 3 cancelled (100%)
- Egypt: 26 scheduled – 0 cancelled (0%)
- Israel: 7 scheduled – 7 cancelled (100%)
- Jordan: 3 scheduled – 1 cancelled (33.33%)
- Oman: 2 scheduled – 0 cancelled (0%)
- Qatar: 16 scheduled – 12 cancelled (75%)
- Saudi Arabia: 6 scheduled – 2 cancelled (33.33%)
- Turkiye: 48 scheduled – 0 cancelled (0%)
- United Arab Emirates: 33 scheduled – 31 cancelled (93.94%)
Routes to the United Arab Emirates, Israel and Bahrain are currently experiencing near-total disruption, while services to Egypt and Turkiye are, at present, operating as scheduled.
Global Cancellations to the Middle East
Looking beyond the UK market, Cirium reports 5,340 flights scheduled globally to Middle Eastern destinations today, of which 1,775 have been cancelled — a cancellation rate of 33.24%.
Breakdown by destination country:
- Saudi Arabia: 1,167 flights – 174 cancelled (14.91%)
- United Arab Emirates: 1,026 flights – 826 cancelled (80.51%)
- Egypt: 474 flights – 52 cancelled (10.97%)
- Qatar: 322 flights – 277 cancelled (86.02%)
- Iran: 326 flights – 58 cancelled (17.79%)
- Israel: 171 flights – 140 cancelled (81.87%)
- Oman: 106 flights – 26 cancelled (24.53%)
- Jordan: 97 flights – 53 cancelled (54.64%)
- Bahrain: 90 flights – 90 cancelled (100%)
- Turkiye: 1,561 flights – 79 cancelled (5.06%)
Data Limitations and Ongoing Disruption
Cirium notes that data coverage from Iran and the United Arab Emirates is currently limited and may appear artificially low in some datasets. Additionally, airspace closures across parts of the Middle East mean that cancellation rates in certain countries — such as the UAE — should in practice be 100%.
However, not all airlines have formally updated their schedules to reflect cancellations. In some cases, smaller carriers have simply not operated flights without officially cancelling them in their systems, meaning they do not appear in standard cancellation datasets.
Further disruption is expected.
Cirium anticipates that cancellations will continue for at least a week, depending on developments and individual airline responses. The scale of impact is likely to remain both country- and carrier-specific as airlines adjust operations in response to airspace restrictions and evolving safety considerations.
All data provided by Cirium as of 17:00 UK time on 2 March.