Embraer has forecast demand for 8,500 new commercial jets in the sub-150-seat market over the next two decades, with deliveries valued at an estimated USD 650 billion as airlines adapt to changing travel patterns and growing regional connectivity.
The Brazilian aircraft manufacturer unveiled its Market Outlook 2026 ahead of next week’s Farnborough International Airshow, providing its latest 20-year forecast covering the period to 2045. The report examines demand across seven global regions and highlights the increasing importance of smaller, fuel-efficient aircraft as airlines expand networks beyond traditional hub airports.
According to Embraer, global passenger traffic, measured in revenue passenger kilometres (RPK), is expected to grow by an average of 3.7% annually through to 2045. China is forecast to experience the strongest growth at 5.2% per year, followed by the Middle East at 4.6% and Africa at 4.4%. Europe is expected to see annual passenger growth of 2.7%, while North America is forecast to grow by 2.0%.
By the end of the forecast period, Asia Pacific and China combined are expected to account for 40% of global passenger traffic, compared with 37% across Europe and North America.
Embraer believes shifting economic activity and evolving passenger preferences will reshape airline networks over the coming decades. The manufacturer argues that increased investment in regional manufacturing centres and changing tourism trends will create stronger demand for direct air services linking smaller cities, rather than relying solely on major hubs.
Arjan Meijer, President and CEO of Embraer Commercial Aviation, said: “The expansion of advanced manufacturing clusters and regional value chains is generating sustained demand for efficient, high-frequency links between emerging economic centres.”
He added that changing travel habits are also increasing demand for improved connectivity to smaller destinations, with aircraft seating fewer than 150 passengers well placed to support those networks.
North America is forecast to remain the largest market for new regional jet deliveries, accounting for 2,670 aircraft, or around 31% of global demand. Europe and the CIS are expected to require 1,870 aircraft, representing 22% of deliveries, while China is forecast to take delivery of 1,470 aircraft.
The Asia Pacific region is expected to require 1,050 aircraft, with Latin America forecast for 740 deliveries. Africa and the Middle East are each expected to account for around 4% of the market, with 370 and 330 aircraft respectively.
Alongside passenger aircraft, the report also examines the standard-body cargo aircraft market, reflecting continued growth in regional freight operations as supply chains become increasingly decentralised.
The outlook comes as manufacturers prepare to showcase their latest products and market forecasts at the Farnborough International Airshow, where future fleet requirements, sustainability and next-generation aircraft are expected to dominate discussions.
While Airbus and Boeing continue to compete for larger narrowbody and widebody orders, Embraer remains focused on the regional jet sector, where it expects airlines to increasingly favour right-sized aircraft capable of serving thinner routes efficiently while maintaining frequent schedules.