IBA forecasts strong growth for African air travel in 2025

Africa’s air transport sector is set to enjoy a year of strong growth in 2025, with passenger traffic expected to rise by 15 per cent to reach around 113 million travellers, according to new analysis from aviation consultancy IBA.

The firm’s latest Africa Aviation Market Update points to a continent in the midst of a solid post-pandemic recovery, driven by expanding airline capacity, rising international demand and renewed fleet investment. IBA expects African airlines to maintain a compound annual growth rate of 5.2 per cent through to 2030, outpacing the continent’s overall economic growth forecast of 4.3 per cent for the same period.

Data from IBA Insight shows continued capacity expansion across the region, with flight schedules indicating a 7.1 per cent year-on-year rise in Available Seat Kilometres (ASKs) during the third quarter of 2025. The growth is being supported by both domestic and intra-African routes, which are expected to increase by 4 and 6 per cent respectively. Although the figures trail those of Asia-Pacific and Latin America, where ASK growth is forecast at 21 and 12 per cent, Africa’s steady progress highlights improving connectivity and network resilience.

Fleet renewal remains a key part of the continent’s aviation growth story. African airlines have placed 23 new aircraft orders so far in 2025, including six Airbus A350s for EGYPTAIR and 17 ATRs for Air Algérie and AfriJet. While the pace of new orders has eased from the highs seen in 2023, activity remains above the 2015–2022 average, signalling confidence in long-term expansion plans.

Around 200 aircraft are currently on order across the continent, led by Ethiopian Airlines with 58, followed by Air Algérie with 24 and Air Peace with 23. Boeing continues to hold the largest share of Africa’s aircraft orderbook at 41 per cent, ahead of Airbus with 35 per cent, ATR with 11 per cent and Embraer with 7 per cent. The continent’s active commercial fleet now totals about 1,490 aircraft, with narrowbodies accounting for 44 per cent. Aircraft in storage have fallen to 29 per cent of the total fleet, close to pre-pandemic levels.

Despite the encouraging growth figures, IBA notes that African airlines continue to face cost pressures. The Ethiopian Birr’s 30 per cent depreciation against the US dollar has pushed up operating costs for the region’s largest carrier, and may lead to fare adjustments. Overall, African airlines are expected to achieve an average EBIT margin of 3.9 per cent in 2025, equivalent to around USD 600 million in operating profit. Stronger operators such as Ethiopian Airlines and Airlink are likely to maintain profitability, while smaller carriers continue to grapple with high structural costs and limited access to financing.

IBA’s analysis suggests that Africa’s aviation sector is on course for sustained long-term growth, supported by rising connectivity, fleet modernisation, and gradual regulatory liberalisation. Although challenges such as high costs and funding constraints persist, the overall outlook for the continent’s airlines remains positive.